GOP watch: The GOP’s Dilemma

During the 2010 campaign, Republicans made lots of promises that deserve scrutiny.

The Washington Post: “Jubilant over their landslide victory in the House and their pickup of six Senate seats, Republican leaders nevertheless face a dilemma as they debate how to exert their new authority. Their energetic conservative base is eager to thwart President Obama’s every move, and if Republicans fail at doing so, they risk disappointing the supporters who turned out in vast numbers for Tuesday’s midterm elections.”

“Tea Party activists are injecting into the 2012 GOP presidential primary an element of antiestablishment volatility that could hurt Mitt Romney’s possible bid while benefiting a fast-growing crop of conservative candidates, political observers say,” the Boston Globe’s Kranish writes. Romney donated to some Tea Party activists, was the first and only potential 2012er to reach out to Sen. Jim DeMint to congratulate him, but “Romney’s decision to interject himself in a Utah primary also has hurt him among Tea Party movement activists,” the Globe writes.

But don’t discount Romney out of hand because of the Tea Party. He will raise and spend a lot of money and could still win by process of elimination. Lots of conservatives are going to run, and if they split the vote, then there’s Romney’s path to win in places like South Carolina, for example. McCain did it in ’08, when Huckabee and Fred Thompson split the conservative vote in the Northwestern part of the state. On the other hand, Romney’s faith was an issue in 2008 for South Carolinians, and he doesn’t have the base of support with veterans that McCain did in South Carolina.